# Investor planning assumptions — 27 September 2026

The financing and commercial estimates behind the [investor brief](/investors) use explicit planning assumptions. Supplier quotes, hiring terms, customer evaluations and measured delivery costs will refine them. Final financing terms remain open.

## Nine-month budget and working financing target

The working planning target is **$1.2 million for nine months**, with the principal technical and commercial decisions due within six months. It rounds the **$1,172,100 base budget**, including 20% contingency, upward by **$27,900**. The low and high scenarios total **$940,200** and **$1,425,600**. The rounded **$0.94–1.43M** span summarizes the selected cost scenarios. The high scenario exceeds the working target by **$225,600**.

The model includes three technical roles: founder plus two engineers. All three are assumed to start in month one and remain funded for nine months. Each receives the same annual loaded-cost allowance within a scenario. Scoped supplier quotes and hiring terms will refine these costs and the final financing size. The model assumes **zero revenue offset**.

| Planning input | Calculation basis | Low | Base | High |
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|
| Founder plus two engineers | 3 × $230,000 / $255,000 / $280,000 annual loaded cost × 9/12 | $517,500 | $573,750 | $630,000 |
| Hardware and pre-compliance | Nine-month allowance | $60,000 | $90,000 | $120,000 |
| Legal and IP | Nine-month allowance | $80,000 | $115,000 | $150,000 |
| Machinery-safety consulting | $6,000 / $9,000 / $12,000 per month × 9 | $54,000 | $81,000 | $108,000 |
| Compute and hosting | $2,000 / $3,000 / $5,000 per month × 9 | $18,000 | $27,000 | $45,000 |
| Operations, insurance and workspace | $4,000 / $6,000 / $9,000 per month × 9 | $36,000 | $54,000 | $81,000 |
| Partner travel | $2,000 / $4,000 / $6,000 per month × 9 | $18,000 | $36,000 | $54,000 |
| **Subtotal** | Sum of the seven cost lines | **$783,500** | **$976,750** | **$1,188,000** |
| Contingency | 20% of subtotal | $156,700 | $195,350 | $237,600 |
| Revenue offset | No revenue assumed | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| **Nine-month total** | Subtotal plus contingency | **$940,200** | **$1,172,100** | **$1,425,600** |

### Cost boundaries and assumptions to confirm

- **Loaded personnel cost** includes compensation, employer payroll costs and benefits. Equipment, computing, premises, business insurance, legal work and travel are allocated separately below. Founder compensation, availability and hiring dates remain assumptions to confirm in founder and employment arrangements.
- **Hardware and pre-compliance** covers boards, parts, test equipment, rigs, standards and preliminary external laboratory charges. **Safety consulting** covers external specialist time for requirements, test planning and assessment preparation. Charge each cost to a single line. Full product certification requires a separate scope, schedule and quoted budget.
- **Legal and IP** covers corporate, commercial, financing and intellectual-property counsel. **Operations** covers workspace, utilities, business insurance, accounting and administration, excluding personnel burden, legal services, computing and travel already allocated elsewhere.
- **Compute and hosting** covers model inference, hosted development/test workloads and hosting services; device and test-rig hardware belongs in the hardware line. **Partner travel** covers transport, lodging and associated partner-visit costs, excluding equipment and engineering labour.
- Each scenario applies its allowances consistently for nine months, then adds contingency once. Actual costs could exceed the high scenario. Quotes, commitments and measured spending will inform final financing decisions.

### Earlier planning basis

The earlier staffing correction was three roles × $230,000–280,000 annual loaded cost × 9/12 = $517,500–630,000. Adding the original $60,000–120,000 hardware/pre-compliance and $80,000–150,000 legal/IP allowances, then 20% contingency, produced **$789,000–1,080,000**. The current model adds safety, compute, operations and travel allowances and explicitly includes the founder and month-one start dates.

The earlier **$1.2–1.8 million** range is superseded by the working target and cost scenarios above. Scoped quotes and confirmed hiring arrangements will refine the current allowances.

The proposed programme funds hardware and firmware engineering, embedded verification, machinery-safety expertise, equipment and partner evaluations. The month-six decision depends on useful contained behavior, paid demand, reduced effort on a second compatible integration and a written assessment scope and cost. Months seven through nine allow corrections and a financing decision. Further fundraising may require additional time and capital.

## Commercial assumptions

The company thesis is a reusable hardware containment foundation for untrusted AI. Machine control is the first application and commercial path, with expansion opportunities in bounded computation and controlled access to data and functions. The figures below price only the initial machine-control offering.

Evaluation of each expansion opportunity will cover useful workloads, bounded capability implementations, enforcement of every external action path, integration effort and customer value. Market estimates and revenue forecasts will follow those evaluations.

The existing proposed prices are $25,000–75,000 for an engineering evaluation, $2,000–5,000 per production machine and $50,000–250,000 annually for platform support. In this offering, a platform means an agreed machine family and support scope; included machines, maintenance obligations and overlapping fees require buyer agreement. Licensing to controller vendors remains an option without established pricing.

Margin hypotheses are 30–50% for evaluations, manufacturing/warranty/support costs of 25–35% of hardware selling price or less, and a long-term 65–80% blended gross margin. Validation requires a production bill of materials, purchase orders and measured delivery/support costs.

The customer-discovery plan targets forty accounts, twelve qualified conversations, four to six fit assessments and two or three paid evaluations. Pipeline status and demand evidence are covered in the financing memo.

At $2,000 per machine, $100 million of annual hardware revenue would require 50,000 units. A revenue forecast and reachable-market estimate need qualified builders, compatible machine volumes, adoption assumptions and measured willingness to pay. Industrial installation statistics and service-robot sample data describe different populations and require separate treatment.

## Evidence and earlier materials

Current engineering scope is documented in the [implementation checklist](/evidence#evidence-status) and the September 26 PC-assisted arm records: [interpreter-driven motion and refusal](ecp5-vm-arm-2026-09-26.md) and [stop on a lost gate reply](pc-assisted-arm-timeout-2026-09-26.md).

The [September 28 pitch deck, revision 21](/reports/Endstop_Pitch_Deck.pdf?v=20260928-r21) follows the current investor brief: AI containment, the intended inference-only deployment, the hardware containment architecture and machine-state supervision as its first application. Useful-computation research explores expansion opportunities for the same containment foundation beyond machine control. Its $1.2 million working planning target and $0.94–1.43M cost scenarios use the explicit assumptions above.

Use the [financing memo request](/investor-request) to discuss staffing, use of funds, ownership/IP diligence and the proposed programme. Financing terms and investment commitments require separate agreement.